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CNBC
Oct 5, 2012 3:00pm EDT
incredible detail on this report. some say, hey, wait a minute, how could you have government jobs doing what they're doing? isn't it peculiar they're doing that now? we look at every element. whatever number you can pick, you can attach some conspiracy theory. i do not think, as i said earlier, that it stands the test of time. if you look over time, you go debt these inconsistencies. >> what i was a real estate reporter 20 years ago, there were people who thought we were manipulating the housing numbers back then. that was in the first bush administration. let me talk about the fiscal cliff a little bit. what's the deal going to look like? is there going to be a deal? describe what you think might happen here. >> so we put a 60 to 70% probable that there is a deal after the election, probably in the lame duck session or shortly thereafter. we think -- and there's a great piece on pimco.com by my colleagues that details that. we think that will amount to about a 1 to 1.5% contraction in fiscal terms as opposed to the 4% contraction that we would get in fiscal terms from the fiscal cliff.
CNBC
Oct 2, 2012 3:00pm EDT
flow across the world and dealing with a government that withholds information. how do you balance that? of course, i'm talking about the chinese. >> well, that was actually, you know, there were a lot of issues around that. not only with alibaba but also with all of the users in china. to make sure that we were doing the right thing for everyone relative to freedom of information, so that's not going to go away any time soon. it's just going to have many chapters. we're probably only in chapter three. >> what a tremendous fall. i mean, shareholders obviously, yourself included, have watched the company lose a tremendous amount of market value. you think yahoo! can get it back? >> i think they can. think still have almost 800 million users. everybody likes to down play that. it's the third biggest group of users on the web. you know what's interesting is as i go around, if i get, you know, 30 miles outside of silicon valley, people love yaho yahoo!. they're always telling me about yahoo! mail and how they get their information. so i don't think they're nearly as cynical or abused a
CNBC
Oct 8, 2012 3:00pm EDT
government sits there and starts an antitrust -- i'm not saying apple will because they don't have it. every company has had something come up to it where they've broken it up or broken it back. at&t was broken up. microsoft -- i don't know -- >> when you're the tallest nail in the room, right, somebody's got a hammer. >> absolutely. i'm not saying that's going to happen to apple but it has happened in the past. >> you're dealing with a company that literally moves gdp, right? i mean, it's that significant, sam, what apple does. >> it and the three other tech stocks in the s&p that are the largest are larger than 200 stocks in the s&p. so you just get those three tech stocks -- those four tech stocks to do something good or bad and drags everybody else with it. >> i don't know about my sense of morality but it used to financials and it's not anymore. is that good? >> we see the rotation. it used to be the energy
CNBC
Oct 4, 2012 3:00pm EDT
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CNBC
Oct 1, 2012 3:00pm EDT
, problems in congress, problems with tax code, the problems in our government, the administration. also, listen, bernanke said -- >> maria, the fact that everyone's saying -- >> we didn't see 2008 coming either. >> the fact that everyone is saying qe is not having any effect means that they really are missing the boat. there was $3 trillion worth of corporate issuance in the year to date so far. $1 trillion worth of bonds were sold by corporations. that reduces, obviously, betters their balance sheets, reduces their rates so for the next ten years these corporations are going to be having the benefit of cheap money. 150 or 100 basis points over treasuries to issue cash, that's a great deal. using that money to buy back stock, using that money to pay dividends. tom lee had a great piece that said the outstanding shares of the new york stock exchange are as low as they have been in 1990. what's happening is you have a run-up to qe. the market anticipates that so of course the response is going to be muted to the qe. subsequent months later we then see the market continue to grind higher.
FOX Business
Oct 2, 2012 3:00pm EDT
government trade, the central bank trade. >> i was shocked to not hear him say that. bernanke said a few years ago we have a problem. it would not be solved by the people in congress or in the white house. he actually said, this is not a deep secret, he can get the stock market and financial assets to go up in price. he is continuing to do it. last week with a billion dollars -- the stock market is key. we have this stock market being pushed by the fed which is the biggest bank in town. they are bigger than all the chores and hedge funds. the economy is not doing well. that is when he said he would stops along the the economy is not in play. liz: the nasdaq up 33% year over year. the s&p up 31%. what is the plan? what would cause that surprised? >> i think there is also a possibility of a negative surprise. my guess would be, not a prediction, my guess would be we could have all three things that have been concerning the market for the last three years. china, europe and the u.s., all three of them, could be a little bit better going into december. you can make the story up as well
CNBC
Oct 3, 2012 4:00pm EDT
transition? you're buying in the consumer space. >> yes, and you have the transition of the government. one of the other big messages we picked up over there, particularly in i understondia, emerging market central banks, they're very concerned about what the traditional bank of england, fed, ecb are doing with monetary policy. the fed is now at the extreme. we've tied our monetary policy to unemployment rates. the concern is that's going to bleed into inflation in their markets. you have half the world, the developed market, saying reflation, reflation, reflation. at the same time, the eu markets want to grow, but they don't want that inflation. so they're at odds. that's why you hear brazil's government telling you there's somewhat of a currency war going on. so, look, there's always something. going on. i mean, it's been a very volatile year. the market is up 33% over the last 12 months. there's been plenty to do. our view is this volatility is creating opportunity. you've got to be global. you've got to be across multiple assets. you have to be coordinated in terms of your approach
FOX Business
Oct 1, 2012 3:00pm EDT
fiscal cliff and a government overspending which many see as a huge, huge worry. wouldn't you agree? >> right. and the likelihood of our prolific friends in washington getting the policy right the first time is rather low which is why i think that the high for the year will likely be made sometime in october. and i think we'll see some sort of a pause and then perhaps a climb back up. ashley: you say a pause, there are many people saying this market is in need, desperate need of a correction, 5-10%. would you agree with that? >> well, it's difficult for me to be overly concerned given that liquidity is firmly in place, you don't have general participation by the public at a large, many pension funds around the country have moved to more defensive strategies, putting more money into bonds. so where's the real extreme selling going to come from? there's also a large short interest in the equity markets right now, so hedge funds, by and large, have not participated. long/short, equity hedge funds have done quite poorly this year and way underperformed the benchmark and in many cases ha
CNBC
Oct 5, 2012 4:00pm EDT
tepid number. you had strong growth partly driven by the government, where the labor markets were quite tepid. >> what else are we going to see, rick santelli? what's going to happen in the next week or so? a lot of people arguing the earnings situation, we're going to have negative growth in the third quarter. what do you see happening in october? >> well, i don't disagree with that. i think the next week in my own backyard, we have threes, tens, and 30s. columbus day, the bond market is closed. the biggest issue for this quarter we're in is how much europe gives us a head wind. i'm talking more about what we've been discussing for the last several days. that is europe is systemically important. capital relationships, banking balance sheets, subordinate relationships. i think all of that as they hiccup and the relationship between germany and exports in china is all going to give us a head wind. canada created 54,000 jobs today and they have one-tenth the size population. >> wow. doug, weigh in on the jobs numbers and what it means when it comes to investing in this market. >> the answ
CNBC
Oct 1, 2012 4:00pm EDT
defense and in general government programs but across the government we think there's opportunities. probably if you look at crop insurance or commodity payments in the agriculture, that can add up. smaller areas that's $1 billion. $1 billion here, $1 billion there, it adds up to money. we wanted a menu of thoughtful choices to reduce our deficit and avoid sequestration. >> go through it for us. because, you know, i guess if it were that easy, it would have been a lot simpler getting to the point where we're at. can you talk to us specifics about what you think should be cut? >> sure. that's what we wanted to do in this report. it's more than $100 billion in agriculture, more than $100 billion in energy, and as i said, in agriculture, commodity crop payments, reforming crop insurance. in energy, we'd like to eliminate the entire tight. 17 loan guarantee program which includes the loan guarantee, you know, the program that brought you solyndra. we'd like to eliminate subsidies that have gone to the oldest and most profitable energy sectors, from the intangible drilling costs to the a
CNBC
Oct 8, 2012 4:00pm EDT
and what the real role is of the chinese government in terms of potential control of this company. >> no, those are also fair points. there is no role of the chinese government in the company. the committee knows full and very well that when they visited our facilities, that they actually had access to the entire list of all 65,000 of our employee shareholders. look, this industry -- the committee is focused on cyber security concerns. those are very legitimate concerns. but, the fact of the matter is, it's a global industry. hauwei, cisco, eriksson, nokia se seimens operating on a common stage with overlapping -- there are cyber concerns but they are universal. anything short of universal solutions is nothing but political gamesmanship. >> i've done a lot of reporting on it. it goes back to the chinese, broadly speaking, to spy, usually using the internet on u.s. corporations and to steal their secrets wherever they may be and whatever way the chinese can. many say about hauwei, in fact, it came from virtually nothing as a result of today because of stolen intellectual property.
FOX Business
Oct 4, 2012 3:00pm EDT
been seeing in the case of spain that does give the government some time to restructure the banking sector which it needs to do and deliver the reforms to get the economy going again. for us it would actually relieved the near-term pressure on spain's rating, to request support. liz: you would not see it as the negative if spain says we can't take it anymore and we need the bailout? what would you see as negative if you started to see the banks falter? some spanish banks just past the stress test but i don't know how much value you put in. you tell me. >> they identified there is a big capital shortfall in spanish banks and the numbers came up with in their worst case scenario was basically in line with our best case. we are somewhat more negative than those stress tests but we have taken some assurance in the market, it is within the 1 hundred billion hero on the low. spain already has agreed $100 billion loan from its e.u. partners to recapitalize its banks. so what would potentially push the rating down we have identified as our concern over the outlook of the economy as a whole.
FOX Business
Oct 5, 2012 3:00pm EDT
skeptical. we were expecting 8.2% and it came in at 7.8%. they want to see how the government came up with that number. you are seeing some money come off the table. a little bit of profit taking into the weekend. we hit resistance. we have done that three or four times. we did it again today. the market will back off a little bit. we will close almost flat, i would imagine. liz: what are you going to do. we have the rally for part of today. let me get to the imax. we have gold at this point down $18. oil is coming down as well. maybe we could also throw in dollar versus euro. >> energies love heavy. i think we are going lower. we got below $90 good we could not get back above. that is bearish for crude oil. down i think we go. overall, though, the economy is slowing down. supplies increasing in crude oil. down it goes. i think we see $86 crude oil. liz: if the weather here in cleveland is any indication of what will happen in new york, connecticut and new jersey, it is getting a little bit colder here. watch out. the dollar versus the euro. $1.30. what happened to our dollar? >> good
CNBC
Oct 4, 2012 4:00pm EDT
caused a relief rally in europe. if we see our government doing the same thing, having a very comprehensive response to the fiscal cliff, something like simpson-bowles, 4-plus, $5 trillion over a period of time, you'll see a huge rally. on the other hand, if we see this dragging out, if they have to have it delayed, it doesn't happen after the lame duck session, after the election, it drags on to february, drags on to march. we will have a recession in the first quarter. we'll have negative gdp in the first quarter. despite my bullishness out a year, we could have some real volatility. i would suggest if we have that real volatility, it's a great buying opportunity for everybody out there. but in my conversation with many of the men and women in washington, i'm trying to be as large of an alarmist as i can to make sure we focus on the fiscal cliff and we have a resolution as fast as possible. >> absolutely. and europe, have we seen the worst there? >> europe is a seven-year fix. we have a great plan that the ecb has created, but we also need politicians to agree on it. >> simi
FOX Business
Oct 3, 2012 3:00pm EDT
a tangible investments, and firm believers government balance sheets and we are seeing yield in that area. those are the big areas we see movement. and people worrying about risk. risk has gotten -- it doesn't have to be a bad thing. you have to take some risk and some opportunity and it is how we focus in on that, how we focus and manage that risk and put that risk in our portfolio that allows us to take advantage of the market moved up or down. with that is our goal. ashley: what about the financial sector? concerns about regulations suffocating the sector. what are your thoughts on that? >> we did this global survey and saw 86% of an institutional investors feel financial regulations are a real drag on the market creating uncertainty and creating additional risk. not less risk. 76% of european investors feeling the same thing. all of this regulatory upheaval is going on in the u.k. and the u.s. and europe, creating this uncertainty and making financial institutions and corporations to make capital expense to invest in jobs and that is the most difficult thing. the overhang of
Search Results 0 to 14 of about 15